Asia's Best and Worst Currencies of 2026, So Far

0:00Same war, same oil, same Fed

On Friday, October the 23rd, the Philippine peso closed at its weakest ever, 63.615 to the US dollar. It was the peso's 31st record low this year.

Indonesia's rupiah has fallen just as far this year. India's rupee and Thailand's baht are down 5-6%. But one Asian currency is up 9% and at the end of June it was at its weakest in 17 years.

Same war. Same oil price. Same American interest rates. So, ten months in, which of Asia's currencies are winning 2026, which ones are losing, and what is it doing to your money? We ranked ten of them from last place to first.

This is Dominomics. We take one big story and follow its chain reaction all the way to your money.

0:50The scoreboard

Here's the scoreboard. What each currency is worth in US dollars. From the last day of 2025 to October the 23rd. Nine of the ten come from one official source. The European Central Bank's daily reference rates. The Taiwan dollar, which the ECB doesn't track, comes from America's central bank.

Four forces split this table. What each country pays for oil. What it sells to the world. How its interest rates compare with America's. And how much investors trust it. Every currency here was pushed by at least one of them.

And the currency in first place is the one that looked like it was breaking this summer. But start at the bottom.

1:29A photo finish for last

Last place is a photo finish. By the European Central Bank's rates, the rupiah is down 7.7% this year, and the peso 7.4. On each country's own market rates, the gap shrinks, and on one measure the order even flips. Call it a tie.

Indonesia's problem is trust. The government expects this year's deficit to come close to its legal limit of 3% of the economy. A new finance minister took over in September. And on October the 15th, the index company MSCI proposed moving Indonesia out of its emerging-markets index. The next day, Jakarta's stock market fell 11.6%, its worst day in nearly three decades.

Foreign investors have pulled about $5 billion out of Indonesian stocks this year. Bank Indonesia has raised its interest rate by a full percentage point since May, to 5.75%, and it keeps stepping into the market to slow the fall.

The peso's problem is oil. The Philippines imports almost all of the oil it uses. Brent crude went from $61 a barrel at New Year to $115 on October 20. And every barrel costs more pesos. Since January diesel at the pump has gone up about 65 pesos a litre.

Prices are now rising 7.2% a year, while the economy grew just 2.3% in the second quarter. On October 22, the central bank raised its rate by half a point, to 5.5%. Its governor said, we're not hiking the policy rate to defend the peso.

But it has been selling dollars to slow the fall. In September, the country's reserves dropped below $100 billion for the first time in three years.

And here's the part that's easy to miss. Since the war began at the end of February, no currency on our list has fallen further than the peso: more than 9%. Before the war, it had been rising.

3:24Oil and interest rates

Number 8. The Thai baht. Down 6% this year and almost 8% since the war began. Thailand buys most of its oil abroad too, but its central bank went the other way. In February it cut its interest rate to 1%, and it has held it there.

America's central bank raised its rate in September to between 3.75 and 4 percent. So a dollar deposit pays several times what a baht deposit does, and money goes where it earns more.

Number 7. India's rupee down 5.4%. India buys more than four-fifths of its crude oil abroad. Between April and June alone, its crude oil bill hit a record of almost $50 billion.

India's reserves, which the central bank uses to slow the fall, dropped from a record $786 billion in early September to $721 billion by mid-October. On October 7, the Reserve Bank of India raised its interest rate for the first time since 2023.

4:25The middle of the table

Now the middle of the table where the surprises are. Number six. The Taiwan dollar down about 3%. Even though Taiwan makes the world's most advanced chips. In mid-October, as AI stocks sold off, foreign investors were net sellers of $19.4 billion of Taiwanese shares in a single week. And about $18 billion left the country.

Number 5. And second among the Southeast Asian currencies on our board, the Malaysian ringgit down less than 1% this year.

Malaysia has an oil bill too. Keeping petrol at RM1.99 a litre, and diesel subsidised too, is set to cost the government about 40 billion ringgit this year, more than double what it budgeted. But Malaysia sells more energy than it buys, thanks to its liquefied natural gas. When energy prices jump, so does what it earns.

Its exporters have been changing their dollars into ringgit. And the economy grew 5.5% in the first nine months of the year. Since the war began, the ringgit is still down almost 5%. But next to its neighbours, it held.

Number 4. The Japanese yen, almost exactly where it started the year. That took work. Between April 30 and May 6, Japan's government spent 11.7 trillion yen, about 74 billion dollars, buying yen.

Number 3. The Singapore dollar, up half a percent. The best of the Southeast Asian currencies on our board. Singapore's central bank steers the currency itself, not an interest rate, and a strong Singapore dollar is how it keeps imported prices in check.

6:02The top two

Number 2. China's yuan up 5%. China's exports are booming. A trade surplus of $938 billion in the first nine months. Already about four-fifths of last year's record. With three months still to go. Its central bank has let the yuan rise slowly.

And number one. The Korean won up 9% this year. At the end of June, it was at its weakest since 2009. Since then, it has gained almost 18% to its strongest in two years.

What turned it was chips. AI data centres need huge amounts of memory chips, and Korean companies make most of them. In September, Korea's exports hit a record $120.9 billion, and half of that was chips.

Here's the strange part. Foreign investors were selling Korean stocks for most of the year. But since the summer, exporters have brought in more dollars than investors took out. And when they changed those dollars into won, the won rose. The Bank of Korea raised its rate twice, too.

Line the table up, and a pattern appears. Near the top, big exporters, selling chips, gas, and factory goods. At the bottom, economies buying oil at war prices, with prices rising fast, or investors losing patience. The dollar itself barely moved. Against a broad basket of currencies, it's up just 1.4% this year.

7:29Where it reaches you

So where does it reach you? Start with anything priced in dollars. A thousand US dollars of fuel. A phone or a flight now costs Filipinos about 4,700 pesos more than in January. Indonesians about 1.4 million rupiah more. Indians about 5,000 rupees more. And Thais about 2,000 baht more.

And it doesn't stop at the border. A weaker currency makes fuel dearer, then transport, then food. Families paying for a child's school abroad, or for a trip, pay more too.

Some people win. A family receiving 500 US dollars from a relative working abroad. Now gets about 2,300 pesos more than in January, 8% more. But with prices rising 7.2% a year, that gain barely keeps up.

Exporters win, and so do visitors. For a Korean or a Singaporean, hotels and meals in Bangkok or Bali cost less than they did in January, even if the flights don't.

8:31Why it might turn

None of this is fixed, and currencies can turn fast. The won's climb rests on the AI chip boom, and chip stocks around the world have been falling this month.

The next dominoes are close. On October the 28th, America's central bank and Thailand's both decide on interest rates. Japan's follows on the 30th, and Malaysia's on November the 5th. And behind all of them is oil, still above $100 a barrel.

8:58So who's winning 2026?

So who's winning 2026 so far? The won and the yuan, and in Southeast Asia, the Singapore dollar and the ringgit. Who's losing? The rupiah and the peso, by a whisker, with the baht and the rupee close behind. Same war, same oil, same Fed. What decided it was what each country sells, what it buys, and how much the world trusts it.

Tell us in the comments. Where are you watching from? And what has your currency done to your money this year?

This is Dominomics. See you at the next domino.